TFL Vsebine / Revija SIR*IUS

Residential real estate market in Slovenia and its dynamics

Članek ponuja podrobnejši pregled dinamike glavnih kazalnikov na trgu stanovanjskih nepremičnin v Sloveniji. Hkrati se v članku osredotočamo na strukturnejšo analizo s pomočjo sestavljenih kazalnikov precenjenosti oziroma podcenjenosti stanovanjskih nepremičnin (po metodologiji Lenarčič in Damjanović, 2015). Nadalje uporabimo in preverimo robustnost in konsistentnost ekonometričnega modela za napovedovanje gibanja cen stanovanjskih nepremičnin v Sloveniji, ki temelji na bayesianskem modelu vektorske avtoregresije. Ekonometrični model temelji na modelu, ki so ga uporabili Lenarčič, Zorko, Herman in Savšek (2017). Celovit pristop k razumevanju dinamike trga stanovanjskih nepremičnin je lahko tudi pomembno orodje pri vodenju makrobonitetne politike in investicijske politike zasebnega sektorja. Kljub temu je nadaljnji razvoj ekonometričnih in statističnih orodij za analizo trga cen stanovanjskih nepremičnin potreben ne glede na omejitve, ki bi jih lahko predstavljale razmeroma kratke in omejene podatkovne časovne serije za cene stanovanjskih nepremičnin v Sloveniji.

The article offers a detailed overview of the dynamics of the main residential real estate market indicators in Slovenia. At the same time, the focus is given on a more structured analysis using a composite misalignment indicator of residential real estate prices (based on Lenarčič and Damjanović, 2015). Further on, we use and check the robustness and consistency of an econometric forecast model of residential real estate prices for Slovenia, which is based on a bayesian vector autoregressive model. We follow a model that was presented by Lenarčič, Zorko, Herman and Savšek in 2017. A comprehensive approach to understanding the dynamics of the residential real estate market can also be an important tool in pursuing macroprudential policy as well as investment policies for private sector. Nevertheless, further development of econometric and statistics tools for the analysis of the residential real estate market is needed regardless of the limitations that could be posed by relatively short and limited data time series for residential real estate prices in Slovenia.