TFL Vsebine / Revija SIR*IUS

Business Growth planning

Za ocenjevalce vrednosti podjetij je načrtovanje rasti podjetij, ki jih ocenjujemo, ena izmed najbolj subjektivnih faz postopka ocenjevanja vrednosti. V skladu z moderno teorijo rasti je ključno gonilo rasti poslovanja podjetij njihovo nerazkrito znanje, zaradi katerega so drugačni od konkurence. Pri rasti podjetja ne gre samo za posamezne pojave novih idej, ki omogočajo njihovo nadaljnjo rast. Rast podjetij je nelinearna in sledi zakonitostim odvisnosti od poti. Poslovanje v naslednjih letih je v veliki meri odvisno od dogajanja v podjetju v preteklosti. Zakonitost odvisnosti od poti nam sugerira, da podjetje z enakim načinom vodenja, z enakim znanjem, istimi zaposlenimi in enakim poslovnim modelom zelo težko bistveno izboljša rast in poslovno uspešnost. Ta zakonitost je v nasprotju z načinom projiciranja prihodnjega poslovanja ocenjevanega podjetja, ki ga poznamo pod imenom "hokejska palica", ki se pogosto pojavlja pri ocenah vrednosti podjetij.

Business appraisers find that corporate growth is one of the most subjective stages in the process of valuation. According to the modern growth theory, a key driver of companies’ growth remains their tacit knowledge that makes them better compared to their competitors. Business growth is not just the sporadic emergence of new ideas that are simply transferred into sales growth. Business growth is a nonlinear phenomena and follows the principles of path dependency. Business in the coming years is largely dependent on developments in the company in the past. The principle of path dependency suggests that a company maintaining the same management approach, the same knowledge and the same business model rarely significantly alters its future growth and performance. This principle is in contrast to the well-known "hockey stick" approach to projecting the future business growth, which often occurs in the process of valuing companies.