TFL Vsebine / Revija SIR*IUS

Estimating Growth

Vrednost podjetja je pogosto enaka sedanji vrednosti pričakovanih denarnih tokov, ki naj bi jih podjetje ustvarilo v obdobju svojega poslovanja. Pri ocenjevanju je bistvenega pomena načrtovana stopnja rasti prihodkov oziroma dobička. V prispevku prikazuje avtor različne možne načine ocenjevanja omenjene rasti. Obstajajo trije načini ocenjevanja rasti podjetja: zgodovinske stopnje rasti, ocene rasti analitikov in uprave in analiza osnovnih dejavnikov rasti, pri kateri je rast odvisna od zadržanega dobička oziroma investicij in njihove učinkovitosti. Avtor obravnava v prispevku prednosti in slabosti vseh treh načinov in prikaže praktičen primer analize osnovnih dejavnikov rasti.

The value of a firm is usually equal to the present value of expected future cash flows generated by the firm. The most critical input in valuation is the growth rate to use to forecast future revenues or earnings. The analysis of different ways of estimating growth is presented in the article. There are three basic approaches to estimating growth of a firm: a historical growth rate, analysts and management estimates, and analysis of the firm’s fundamentals, where the growth is determined by how much is reinvested and what returns capital expenditures are generating. The author discusses advantages and disadvantages of all three approaches and presents a practical example of the fundamental determinants of growth.